Match size to downside
Estimate the loss if your invalidation level is reached, then size the position against your portfolio loss budget. Smaller, less-tested assets usually call for tighter limits.
Make every portfolio decision answer to a plan.
Phillips Orbit Group turns market research into a risk-first process you can repeat. Start with what would prove your thesis wrong, then decide how much risk the idea earns.
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A Risk Framework Before a Price Target
Write down the reason to own an asset and the evidence that would change your mind. Set the risk before you discuss a target.
ThesisState the catalyst and the evidence you expect to see.
Position sizeChoose an allocation that fits your loss limit.
InvalidationName the event or data point that breaks the thesis.
Scheduled reviewSet a date to check the evidence again.
A hypothetical sizing example
On a $50,000 portfolio, a 2% allocation is $1,000 at entry. That is the capital assigned to the position, not a promise about what you can lose; price gaps and execution can increase losses.
$1,000 2% of a hypothetical $50,000 portfolio -
Position Sizing and Allocation
Conviction can guide research priority. It should never decide portfolio risk by itself. Keep any single thesis inside a limit you can live with.
Pick a review cadence
Monthly reviews catch changing liquidity and token supply sooner, but can invite noise-driven trades. Quarterly reviews reduce churn; they may leave less room to react to a fast change.
Plan reserves and custody
Set a stablecoin reserve limit and account for issuer, platform, and redemption risk. Choose custody based on your security practices, recovery plan, and tolerance for counterparty exposure.
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Due Diligence Checklist
Check the basics before treating a token thesis as investable. Open each item for the question the desk would put in its research notes.
Team background
Can you verify the team's relevant track record, public responsibilities, and disclosures? Record what is confirmed and what remains unknown.
Token supply schedule
Map circulating supply, unlock dates, emissions, and concentration. Compare expected new supply with actual demand rather than relying on a headline market cap.
Treasury transparency
Look for current treasury disclosures, stated obligations, and a clear reporting cadence. Note material gaps between public claims and verifiable information.
Liquidity depth
Check depth across venues and the likely price impact of your intended trade. Thin order books can make an exit materially different from a displayed quote.
Legal exposure
Identify relevant jurisdictions, token restrictions, and unresolved legal questions. Seek qualified legal advice where your situation requires it.
Stop and reassess
Unverifiable supply data, unexplained control of treasury funds, persistent inability to trade at stated liquidity, or material claims with no supporting evidence are reasons to pause. Keep this checklist in your own research notes; every item is readable here.
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Set a Review Rhythm
A calendar review keeps the original thesis visible when prices move quickly. Short sentence. Review sooner when a material event changes the facts.
Monthly check-in
Useful when token unlocks, protocol activity, or liquidity can change quickly. Keep the review focused on evidence, not daily price noise.
Quarterly reset
Works for a slower-moving thesis with clear monitoring triggers. Revisit allocation, thesis evidence, and exposure at each scheduled date.
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Keep a Decision Record
A useful process leaves a paper trail. Record why you entered, what would change your view, and what you learned at review time.
Before a trade
Write the thesis, planned size, invalidation condition, and the date you will review it.
At review time
Compare new facts with your original notes. Change the plan only when the evidence or your risk limit changes.
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Talk Through Your Plan
Bring your current allocation, written risk limits, and next review date. The investment desk can discuss how your process handles those decisions.
Make the plan clear before the next trade.
Contact the desk to discuss portfolio structure and research questions. Any conversation is general information, not a guarantee of performance or a substitute for advice suited to your circumstances.
Contact the Investment DeskCrypto assets carry substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consider your circumstances and seek independent professional advice when needed.